With the long-awaited sequel Top Gun: Maverick making over a billion dollars at the box office, the odds are surprisingly high that Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One could make the actor another billion in 2023.

It took a long time for Tom Cruise to make a billion-dollar movie, and Top Gun: Maverick’s historic haul is the culmination of a career that has been defined by over a dozen movies that made it past $100 million, multiple movies that hit $500 million, and even one or two that almost reached the pivotal number.

However, it took until the much-delayed Top Gun sequel for Cruise to headline a billion-dollar movie, despite the Mission Impossible spy thriller franchise consistently pulling in impressive box office numbers. With Mission Impossible 7 finally arriving in 2023, it is fair to speculate whether lightning can strike twice for the actor. However, there is a confluence of factors to consider when weighing Cruise’s future chances at the box office.

Cruise crossing the line and finally netting himself a billion-dollar hit bodes well for the future of the Mission Impossible franchise. However, Top Gun: Maverick’s legacy sequel classification made the movie a chance for the older actor to pass the torch to a new generation, while Mission Impossible 7 is business as usual for its star. That said, the Mission Impossible movies have been gradually bigger and bigger box office hits, so the series could be poised to finally make a billion dollars with the next sequel since the franchise’s critical reception is as impressive as its financial performance. This forecast might be overly optimistic, though, since the five-year gap between Mission Impossible: Fall Out and Mission Impossible 7 can’t compare with Top Gun: Maverick’s multi-decade wait.

Mission Impossible 7 is making the risky decision to market the movie as the first installment of a two-part outing for the franchise, which could keep it from being another billion-dollar hit. Moviegoers going to see Top Gun: Maverick thought Cruise’s character could die in the highly hyped sequel, having not seen the character for almost four decades. While it was always unlikely that a Mission Impossible movie would kill off Tom Cruise’s Ethan Hunt, the fact that the sequel is being advertised as one half of a two-part story makes Ethan’s survival an inevitability and saps the story of its stakes as a result.

(ROHN ROMULO)